Friday, May 4, 2012

Playoffs vs. 14th Pick in Draft

I can't believe that Jazz fans, media members, or anyone else is actually having this conversation and taking it seriously.

The Jazz have been pummeled, to put it lightly, by the San Antonio Spurs in the first two games of their first-round playoff series. I think that's a bit of a shock to the system after the high that most fans were feeling as we rolled into the playoffs with some very clutch play by the team down the stretch. We felt like we are a worthy playoff foe. The Spurs came into the series after tying the Bulls with the best regular season record, and that is AFTER conceding several games where Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili didn't even play. Heck, Coach Pop didn't even travel for the last couple of games with the team.

So now, after all fans were enthralled with the race to the playoffs, ecstatic after the win against Phoenix to clinch their spot on the playoffs, and now brought down to earth by the first two playoff losses, fans are beginning to speak out, saying that the 14th pick would have been better than being dragged up and down the floor by the Spurs in this first series.

ARE YOU SERIOUS?!

First of all, we're not missing out on a top 3 pick, or even a top 5 pick that could come in and make a difference next year. We're talking a 14th pick, who could end up being Kobe Bryant or Alec Burks or Rashad McCants or William Avery. The draft is far from a sure thing, and Jazz fans should know this best of all. While we've had our share of draft underachievers, we've also enjoyed great careers from later picks, with Karl Malone, John Stockton, Paul Millsap, and Ronnie Brewer.

We could end up with anything. We could draft a Raul Lopez in the same draft that Tony Parker goes way later. This 14th pick could be the MVP in four years, or could be out of the league, but either way, the Jazz need to be in the playoffs right now, with this young team.

Utah has been one of the most consistent playoff teams of the past quarter century, and it needs to be understood that the playoffs is the MINIMUM standard of excellence that the team should be pushing towards.  Preferring the draft lottery over the playoffs is never ok. Teams who do that are stuck in the draft lottery every single year. Take a look at the top 14 draft picks from last year:


Take out the Jazz, who had the craziest year in team history and somehow came out with two lottery picks, and tell me how many of the teams with picks in last year's lottery are currently competing in the playoffs. How many? It took me a minute, but I think the answer is ZERO! What's even crazier is that MORE THAN HALF OF THE TEAMS IN THE LEAGUE QUALIFY FOR THE PLAYOFFS, AND NOT A SINGLE ONE THAT SELECTED IN THE LOTTERY LAST YEAR IS AMONG THOSE TEAMS!

Think of the teams that are contenders nearly every year: San Antonio, Dallas, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston. How many of those teams are getting lottery picks every year? How many of those teams have their fans wishing they'd miss the playoffs to pick up a borderline role player? I understand that they're in different situations than the Jazz because of the pull that they can create for large profile free agents, but the principle is the same. Contending teams are not made or broken by their one "edge of the lottery" draft pick.

I was asked on Twitter yesterday if I would rather have Alec Burks (who was close to that draft position) or be swept (possibly) from the playoffs. I would absolutely rather be swept. I'd rather get to the playoffs and lose 4 games by 50 points than settle for a lottery pick. The Jazz don't have enough room on the roster to develop more lottery players. They struggle getting two #3 draft picks on the floor and give them enough playing time to help them develop. Where is one more lottery pick going to fit?

Whether the Jazz can squeeze out a game in this series or not, the experience is there, for both a young team and a young coach. All good playoff and championship contending teams have gone through the growing pains of getting killed in the playoffs. Heck, Tim Duncan and the Spurs got killed by the Jazz back in the day, and didn't break through for several years. The Shaq and Kobe Lakers had trouble with the Jazz as well. The OKC Thunder (every Jazz fan's dream model to follow, even though we're not following it) also had to get bounced from the playoffs by more experienced teams, including last year's Mavericks team, before developing into a contender, and they STILL might not be able to get past the Spurs with TWO All-NBA caliber players on the roster. 

Jody Gennessy yesterday on the radio talked about the impatience of Jazz fans who have forgotten that we had to learn through TWELVE years of struggles before the Stockton/Malone teams finally broke through to the Finals with the help of Jeff Hornacek (46th pick in the draft). We're so impatient, we have outlets like blogs and Twitter where we can complain about everything from players, coaches, to radio and newspaper guys. Be patient. Kevin O'Connor has shown that he knows what he's doing, and the Jazz organization is showing that they're not settling for the lottery. Once you settle, you're just another Detroit, Washington, Cleveland, or Golden State. 

We have several young talented players who have only been in the league a year or two, and already know what it's like to fight for a playoff spot. Next year, they're going to want to make it back to the playoffs, and fight their way out of the first round. Who knows if this is the path that eventually leads back to the Finals/Championship, but it sure gets us a lot closer than the 14th pick in this year's draft.


 
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